Must-Read: Canadian Natural Gas Producers And The OPEC Deal

Alliance offers natural gas producers more access to the east as West Coast LNG prospects fadeFinancial Post

TransCanada’s natural gas pipeline deal with producers just saved the industry from losing US$25 billionFinancial Post

OPEC’s misleading narrative about world oil supplyBelfer Center

Saudis are right back where they startedBloomberg Gadfly

Not for republication on Seeking Alpha.

Portfolio Update: Moving Chips To My Winners

I am now well positioned for 2017 after another series of move in my portfolio.

  • I added to my positions in Painted Pony Petroleum (PPY) and in Gear Energy (GXE) by selling part of my position in MEG Energy (MEG). I am preparing my portfolio for lower oil prices.
  • I opened a position in Tidewater Midstream & Infrastructure (TWM).
  • I bought back shares in TransGlobe Energy (TGL). TransGlobe’s Canadian transformation is a game changer to me. Plus the acquisition metrics are very good for TransGlobe shareholders.
  • I opened a position in Point Loma Resources (PLX).

I made a quick analysis for Point Loma Resources after hearing about the stock on Seeking Alpha. The stock is indeed trading at a very low 6.3X Year-End 2016 FFO. I estimate FFO of C$17.92 per barrel at year-end 2016. Furthermore, the company holds no debt except for convertible debentures and plans to grow production aggressively next year. In other words, the multiple should be higher.

Other interesting news for Canadian oil and gas producers: lower oil exports from Venezuela and possibly lower transport tariffs from TransCanada.

Lower heavy crude from Venezuela will benefit Canadian heavy oil and tighten the price differential of Canadian heavy oil versus WTI.

Finally, the new push for natural gas pipelines in the Northeastern US will force TransCanada to lower its transportation tariffs. Else it will face a severe decrease in its market share in Eastern Canada.

Disclosure: I am long GXE, MEG, PLX, PPY, TGL, TWM. Not for republication on Seeking Alpha.