Disappointing Decrease In Athabasca Oil’s Short Positions

I called on Seeking Alpha that the recent rally in the stock price of Athabasca Oil would help clear the massive short positions.

ATH StockCharts.com October 20

Source: StockCharts.com

ATH StockCharts.com October 22

Source: StockCharts.com

Unfortunately, the shares sold short decreased by only 350,000 as we saw from the Top TSX Short Positions published today. I thought that the push over the 50-day moving average of the stock price would mean a greater decrease in the amount of shares sold short after a double bottom. The stock was put back to its place by the 200-day moving average but should be fine in the short-term, as long as it can hold over the 50-day moving average.

As such, I now believe the only thing that will lead to shorts covering their bets will be a sustaining rise in the price of oil. Therefore, patience is warranted. The stock will most likely test its 50-day moving average.

Disclosure: I am long ATH.

Pacific Exploration & Exploration: My Outlook For Shareholders

  • The O’Hara Group is gone; Alejandro Betancourt Lopez is the sole owner of the stake.
  • The planned capex, capped to cash flow, will barely keep the production stable.
  • The Rubiales field production still accounts for 55,000 bopd of net production.
  • The Z-Score still indicates bankruptcy.

Click here to read the entire article on Seeking Alpha.

TransGlobe Energy: Buying Back Shares I Sold Last Spring

TransGlobe Energy recently abruptly crashed at the C$3.50 per share mark. The stock tried to stay over the 200-day moving average. However, the bears got too strong.

TGL StockCharts.com July 31

Source: StockCharts.com

This recent decline is a great opportunity for me to rebuild the small position I had last spring. I believe the company is undervalued at this level. On the other hand, I will keep this position small compared to my portfolio because of the obvious risks of operating in Egypt.

Disclosure: I am long TGL.

Pacific Rubiales Energy: A Performance Review

PRE StockCharts.com July 27

Source: StockCharts.com

How did this investment played out? Buying Pacific Rubiales Energy was not always meant to be a short-term, all in investment. Should I say speculation? Yes, I think I should.

Indeed, I was surprised at how quickly the value I called on April 21 was reached. After such a big return in a period this short, and with growing uncertainties concerning the company, and other problems lurking around the corner, it made sense to turn this buy into a short-term speculation.

Disclosure: I have no position in PRE.