- The model is realistic according to the first quarter results.
- The market fairly thinks that the offer presented will be rejected by shareholders.
- The current offer will be edged higher or the other group of investors will themselves present an offer.
- The price of natural gas will rise according to AECO futures.
- The company will break-even under current market conditions.
- The business model developed by the management team will thrive in the current environment.
- Substantial acres in Alberta in both the oil sands and light oil.
- Focusing on more profitable light oil properties for a self-funded business in the medium-term.
- Very good balance sheet in the short-term and lots of funding available.
- When the value of the properties unlocked, finding a partner to develop the massive acreage will be easier.
- Speculation ended last night as Pacific Rubiales is being bought at around $6 CAD per share.
- This offer is at the low end of the valuation I discussed in my previous article.
- With the oil market slowly recovering, I would expect better returns holding on to the stock for the longer term instead of letting go at this price.
TransGlobe Energy had a great run in the past month, following my articles on Seeking Alpha. However, on a technical point of view, you should expect a short-term pullback. As such, I believe it is time to sell the stock and buy it back in the short-term afterwards.
Indeed, it seems that the stock couldn’t break the C$5.40 mark. Furthermore, the MACD is about to cross downward. The stock might test the 200-day moving average again in the short-term.
Disclosure: I am long TGL.
- PRE is undervalued compared to its peers.
- The shares are worth over $6.50 based on the net oil reserves of the company.
- The shares are worth over $25.50 based on the net oil production of the company.
- Oil sales from the first quarter will be around $786MM.
- PRE will have a positive cash balance for the first quarter on lower capital expenditures.
- There won’t be any debt maturing before the fourth quarter of 2016 with the new debt profile of the company.
- PRE will increase its cash position by taking on more debt.
- SNC will try as much as possible to settle the fraud charges out of court.
- SNC is more dependent on the commodities cycle and the Canadian economy compared to WSP.
- The 407 Highway is worth up to $20 per share.
- Valuation compared to peers points to major upside.
- The management team is prudent and of high quality, and is a great value creator for shareholders.
- The plan to buy back 10% of the public float will provide a floor and boost the share price.
- There have been fundamental changes in the way TGA can do its business and it will clearly benefit shareholders.
- The management team is willing to look for potential M&A opportunities with high level of cash and a pristine balance sheet.
- Intense insider buying and the share buyback will provide a strong floor for the share price.
- The Highway 407 concession in Ontario is a highly valuable asset, and the sale could raise cash for another acquisition.
- There are still great headwinds that remains in the core engineering and construction operations of the company.